Analysis | Violence may arise after election is called

Peaceful protests can evolve into demonstrations of violent civil unrest. With the election only one day away, scholars spoke to The Panther on the likelihood of post-election violence. SAM ANDRUS, The Panther Photo Editor

President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden have been locked in a tight race in the days leading up to the Nov. 3 general election. National polls show Biden holds a 7.3% lead as of Nov. 1, with the opportunity to swing traditionally red states like Florida, Arizona, Georgia and even Texas. 

However, the byproduct of a win from either candidate, given the clashes between Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement and far-right Trump supporters, may spark further civil unrest.

“You’re already seeing folks show up with guns outside of polling places in Florida,” said Pete Simi, Chapman University expert on extremist groups and violence. “If Biden is successful, you’re going to see a segment of Trump supporters (viewing) that type of result as illegitimate and a corrupt, rigged election.”

Trump supporters are not the only ones Simi acknowledges as potential inciters of violence. On both sides of the political spectrum, he argued demonstrations of peaceful protest after the election results are announced can evolve into confrontations between the far-right and far-left. In Yorba Linda, California, BLM supporter Tatiana Turner was arrested Sept. 26 for driving her vehicle into a crowd of Trump supporters, injuring two counter protestors in the process.

“(Turner) had another way to exit. I know that parking lot … She chose to go to the one where all the Trump supporters were,” said Peggy Huang, first vice chair of the Republican Party of Orange County and a Yorba Linda council member. “Even when the BLM movement showed up (to the protest), it was peaceful on the Trump side … If Trump wins, I feel like it will be fairly violent.”

In Orange County, hate crimes rose – for the fifth consecutive year – by 24% in 2019. The Black community was the highest targeted racial group, despite making up just 2% of the county’s nearly 3.2 million population. Some will respond to unfavorable election outcomes by taking up arms and engaging in insurrection, Simi said. In efforts to reduce the likelihood of this, Walmart had temporarily removed guns and ammunition from its U.S. store floors to maintain employee and customer safety. 

When asked by a White House reporter, Trump didn’t commit to a peaceful transition of power if he were to concede the election to Biden. He instead commented, “We’re going to have to see what happens.”

“The advice I’m giving people on both sides of the aisle when I’m asked how the election will go is, ‘Hope for the best and prepare for the worst,’” said Lori Cox Han, a presidency scholar at Chapman. “The volatility out there in the political environment is real.”

This disregard for precedent in the White House has made its way to the Huntington Police Department, where the political affiliation of some police force members are seeping through. Kelly Rodriguez, the interim police chief, will retire from the department Nov. 13 after members of her police force endorsed a political advertisement calling three Democratic candidates for the Huntington Beach City Council “extreme public safety risks.”

“We’re already in a situation where there’s such a substantial distrust of police. This is going to add to that and politicize the police force, which is the last thing you want,” Simi said. “It’ll give the appearance that, ‘Well, we police red differently than blue – in terms of if you’re going to get different treatment from the police if we can determine your political ideology.’”

Early voting for the 2020 election is breaking records, with over 43% of registered voters making up the 94 million ballots submitted as of Nov. 1. Han said official election results might not be available on election night, as there are increased challenges with accurately counting the amount of early voting ballots. Simi added that voter enthusiasm and legal challenges may put those who recount ballots at a personal safety risk.

“(Trump) is doing everything under the sun possible to stoke violence,” he said. “You’re going to see far-right extremists or white supremacists in Orange County potentially really jigged up, should the results not be favorable to Trump.”